What Is The Current State Of Us Economy – People are leaving their jobs at the fastest rate ever, a sign that they are confident about their economic or future job prospects:
In the fourth quarter of this year, we may project annual (nominal) economic growth of 10%.
What Is The Current State Of Us Economy
Sometimes you have to look at what people are doing and not what they are saying, but the reasons behind consumer unrest.
Inflation Has Middle Class Americans Worried About Economy Ahead
Due to the retail and supply chain disruptions caused by the flu, people are also reluctant to receive products.
Business owners are unhappy about wages and labor shortages resulting from workers’ bargaining power.
But Americans are losing patience with inflation. People saw higher pay as a bonus and higher prices as theft. They fantasized about what wage growth could be achieved if prices stayed the same. Terry McLamb, a baker in Raleigh, North Carolina, told reporters in 1978 that he had given up on his dream of buying a house. He doesn’t seem to realize that his income has exceeded inflation by 14% over the past five years.
Once you get a promotion, it’s usually locked in for 12 months. With a low-interest mortgage, your money is fixed and doesn’t change over time.
Visualizing The $105 Trillion World Economy In One Chart
But inflation causes rapid price changes in the short term. Change scares people.
Natural gas prices are always volatile, but growth here has been rapid. It’s not higher prices that cause fear, but prices that rise quickly and without warning.
Inflation puts pressure on household budgets that are hard to cope with. But there’s also a psychological component to price growth that tends to offset gains in other areas of your life.
Each month you will receive 3-4 book recommendations selected from over 1000 books. You will also instantly receive a comprehensive course (books, articles, documents, videos) in PDF format. Data for March showed the U.S. economy cooled slightly, but there were no significant changes at home. Astor’s economic index forecasts the same level for 2023, consistent with below-average growth.
Gross Domestic Product By County, 2021
One of the key factors in the current macroeconomic cycle has been a strong (perhaps too strong) labor market. Monetary policy has lagged, and its impact on employment has been somewhat indirect, but the Fed has highlighted tightening labor markets as a key driver of progress in the fight against inflation. Low unemployment means more competition for workers, higher wages (they literally printed 0.2% m/m), and therefore higher prices, as companies try to maintain their profit margins. Over the past 12 months, non-payroll averaged 351,000 m/m, compared with 236,000 in March, indicating continued hiring and strong labor demand under recent conditions. The Federal Reserve may take some comfort from the slight cooling, but it wants to further cool low wages, as well as wage growth, in the coming months.
Speaking of cooling, the ISM manufacturing PMI continued to slide, contracting to 46.3 (down from 50). The decline suggests that the manufacturing supply chain has largely recovered, driven by new orders and lower prices paid. On the other hand, the ISM services PMI fell to 51.2 from 55.2, still in positive territory, but cooled significantly due to new orders. It is important to note that other PMIs, such as the series PMIs published by S&P/IHS Markit, are not affected by differences in the universe surveyed.
As the PMI breakdown predicted, inflation this year has been driven mostly by services rather than the demand for goods we saw during the pandemic. Core CPI was printed at 5.0% y/y (0.1% m/m) in March, compared to the core rate of 5.6% y/y (0.38% m/m), slightly lower than expected in the previous two months. . . Core prices were housing (up 0.25% m/m, which is expected to cool over the next few months) and transportation, with headline inflation easing due to lower energy prices. For doves and eagles there was something to like about this inflationary pressure. On the one hand, average headline inflation (which excludes this) was the lowest in two years, as was the average CPI. On the other hand, so-called supercars (excluding food, energy, used cars and housing) are still around 4%. In other words, most of the inflation is driven by sheltered prices, but pressures remain broad.
In short, the labor market and prices are likely to trigger another 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s May FOMC meeting. In addition, the Federal Reserve may sit for a while, continuing the effects of tighter policy. Market participants are increasingly confident that the Fed will begin tapering in the second half of the year. This would be surprising if inflation continues to persist, or if the labor market remains flexible.
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Astor Economic Index: Astor Economic Index® is an asset index created by Astor Investment Management Limited. It represents a collection of various economic data. The Astor Economic Index is designed to track various growth rates in the US economy by analyzing current trends with historical data. Astor Economic Index is not an investment product. Astor Economic Index should not be the only factor in your investment decision. This indicator is based on retrospective data points and may be forward-looking. There can be no assurance that this index will achieve similar results in the future. All conclusions are the property of Astor and are subject to change. Astor Economic Index® is a registered trademark of Astor Investment Management Limited.
All information in this document is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to provide investment advice or services in any jurisdiction where it is illegal. Research and studies are provided for informational purposes only and not for trading or investment purposes. All opinions expressed are valid as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not responsible for the accuracy, availability, or usefulness of such information or for trading or investing based on such information. See Part 2 of Astor’s Form ADV for additional information on fees, risks and services. It produces the most recent economic statistics that influence the decisions of government officials, businessmen and individuals. These statistics provide a complete and up-to-date picture of the US economy. The information on this page is taken from the financial accounts of the brand.
According to “preliminary” estimates, real GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023. Real GDP grew by 2.1% in the second quarter. Growth in the third quarter primarily reflected higher consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports to be deducted in the calculation of GDP have increased.
Failure To Act Economic Reports
Personal income rose $77.8 billion in September (0.3% month-on-month). Disposable personal income (DPI) – personal income minus normal personal taxes – added $56.1 billion (0.3%). Personal Expenditures – Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments and personal current transfers increased by $175.1 billion (0.9%), while consumption increased by $138.7 billion (0.7%). Private deposits totaled $687.7 billion, and the private deposit rate — the percentage of private income that accounts for private deposits — was 3.4 percent in September.
The U.S. current account deficit shrank by $2.4 billion, or 1.1 percent, to $212.1 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised first-quarter deficit was $214.5 billion. The deficit was 3.2% of GDP in the second quarter, less than 0.1% compared to the first quarter.
The difference between America’s net international investment position, foreign financial assets, and debt owed to U.S. residents was $18 trillion at the end of the second quarter.
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