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Human Influence On Global Warming
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What Makes The Current Global Warming Trend Different From Normal Climate Cycles Of The Past?
Climate scientists say they are 95 percent confident that human activity is the main cause of global warming since 1950. They believe this because cigarette smoke causes cancer.
Why are they so confident? Because they better understand how greenhouse gases warm the planet, the partial theory fits the existing evidence and alternative theories are rejected. Let’s break it down into six steps:
1) Scientists have long known that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane, or water vapor, absorb certain frequencies of infrared radiation and reflect them back to Earth. These gases prevent heat from escaping quickly into space, trapping radiation at the surface and keeping the planet warm.
2) Climatologists also know that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly since the industrial revolution. Carbon dioxide increased by 40 percent. Methane increased by 150 percent. With relatively simple chemistry, scientists can track this growth from human activities, such as oil, gas, and coal.
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3) Therefore, more greenhouse gases lead to more warming. In fact, satellite measurements show that less infrared radiation escapes into space and returns to Earth’s surface over time. This is strong evidence of an increase in the greenhouse effect.
4) There are other human fingerprints showing that increasing greenhouse gases are warming the planet. For example, in the early 1960s, conventional climate models predicted that global warming caused by more carbon dioxide would cause the upper atmosphere to cool (because heat is trapped at the surface). Later satellite measurements confirmed this exactly. Other similar predictions were also confirmed.
5) Meanwhile, climate scientists have rejected other explanations for the rise in average temperatures over the past century. Let’s give an example: The activity of the Sun can change from year to year and affect the Earth’s climate. But while the Earth has warmed over the past 35 years, satellite data show a slight decrease in total solar radiation.
6) Recent calculations show that the temperature rise we have seen over the past century cannot be explained without taking into account the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Natural causes such as the sun or volcanoes have an effect, but they are not enough by themselves.
How Do We Know Humans Are Causing Global Warming?
Ultimately, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that most of the warming since 1951 was caused by human activity. Earth’s climate varies from year to year due to natural forces (including Pacific Ocean oscillations such as El Niño). But greenhouse gases increase the temperature more.
Also Read: Here is a table of various factors that affect the Earth’s average temperature. The IPCC report has more details, especially here and here.
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That’s why we’re asking our readers to help set us free. If you think everyone deserves access to reliable, high-quality information, will you make a gift today? There is substantial evidence of global warming. An analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) found that the average temperature has risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880, with about two-thirds of the warming occurring since 1975. It was also the 10th warmest year since 1880. It has been going on since 2005. Climate scientists agree that this warming is largely the result of human activity. This conclusion is based on climate system models that are complex and difficult for non-experts to understand. Are there any simple statistical methods that produce similar results?
Can standard econometric tools be used to determine how much of this warming is anthropogenic? Facts:
The Earth is warming and we are seeing the effects, including hurricanes, heat waves and droughts. Climate models attribute these changes to greenhouse gases released by human activity, but the complexity of these models allows them to muddy the waters in the political climate debate. However, in reality, the basic relationship between temperature and greenhouse gas emissions can be analyzed using standard statistical methods used in economics without the need for a complex climate model. This relationship is confirmed over time and clearly reflects nearly all human-induced warming. This finding is consistent with the results of climate models, external validation of these models, and predictions of future climate change with continued greenhouse gas emissions.
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Sign up to receive the latest advice, new podcast alerts and analysis from top economists straight to your inbox. The current human contribution to global warming is a hot topic in political circles, especially in the United States.
In a recent session of Congress, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry said, “To say that 100% of global warming is caused by human activity, I don’t think is possible.”
However, the science is clear about the human contribution to modern warming. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human emissions and activities have caused almost 100% of the warming since 1950.
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Here, Carbon Brief explores how each of Earth’s key climate drivers affects temperatures individually, and how their combined effects accurately predict long-term global temperature changes.
“More than half of the observed increase in global average temperature from 1951 to 2010 is likely to be caused by human activity,” the IPCC concluded in its 2013 Fifth Assessment Report for Policymakers. By “highly likely” we mean a 95% to 100% chance that more than half of our current warming is caused by humans.
Somewhat confusingly, this statement is a misconception that humans are responsible for 50% to 100% of modern warming. In fact, Dr. As Gavin Schmidt, NASA notes, the IPCC’s best estimate accounts for about 110% of the observed warming (72% to 146%), with natural factors alone accounting for 50% of the slight cooling. Past years
Similarly, the Fourth US National Climate Assessment found that between 93% and 123% of the 1951-2010 warming was caused by human activities.
Greenhouse Gases’ Effect On Climate
These findings have led to some confusion about how human activity accounts for more than 100% of warming. A human contribution of more than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity may have cooled somewhat over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming caused by human activity.
Scientists measure various factors that affect the amount of energy reaching and remaining in the Earth’s climate. They are called “radiation energy”.
These forces include greenhouse gases, including exothermic heat, aerosols—both human activities, volcanic eruptions—sunlight and cloud formation, changes in solar radiation, changes in surface reflectance due to land use, and more.
To estimate the role of different forcings in the observed temperature changes, Carbon Brief adapted a simple statistical climate model developed by Dr. Carsten.
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