Economic Consequences Of Global Warming – According to a new Stanford University study, the gap in economic output between the world’s richest and poorest countries is now 25 percent greater than it would have been without global warming.
According to an analysis by Noah Dieffenbaugh and Marshall Burke, warming that has already occurred (1°C or 1.8°F worldwide above the pre-industrial average) will increase economic inequality worldwide.
Economic Consequences Of Global Warming
A new study from Stanford University shows that global warming has increased economic inequality since the 1960s. Temperature changes caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere make colder countries like Norway and Sweden richer, while reducing economic growth in warmer countries like India and Nigeria.
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“Our results show that most of the poorest countries would be worse off in the absence of global warming,” said climate scientist Noah Dieffenbaugh, lead author of the study, published in a peer-reviewed paper published on April 22. Been.” “It shows that they are quite poor,” he said.
The study, conducted by Marshall Burke, an assistant professor of systems science at Stanford University, found that from 1961 to 2010, global warming reduced per capita wealth by 17 to 30 percent in the world’s poorest countries. Meanwhile, the gap between the groups of countries with the highest and lowest economic output per capita is now about 25 percent greater than it would have been without climate change.
Economic disparities between countries have narrowed in recent decades, but research shows they would be even faster without global warming.
The study builds on previous work in which Burke and colleagues analyzed 50 years of annual temperature and GDP measurements for 165 countries to estimate the impact of temperature change on economic growth. They proved that in warmer years than in normal years, growth is faster in cold countries and slower in warm countries.
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“Historical data clearly shows that crops are more productive, people are healthier and the workforce is more productive when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold,” Burke said. “This means that in cold countries a little warming helps. In places that are already warm, it’s the opposite.”
In the current study, Diffenbaugh and Burke combined Burke’s previously published estimates with data from more than 20 climate models developed by research centers around the world. The researchers used climate models to determine how much each country would have warmed due to human-induced climate change, and what each country’s economic output would have been if temperatures had not warmed.
The map on the left shows countries whose GDP per capita increased or decreased as a result of global warming from 1961 to 2010. The map on the right shows the same data for 1991, after economic data became available for more countries. (Image credit: Noah Dieffenbaugh and Marshall Burke)
To account for the uncertainty, the researchers calculated more than 20,000 versions of each country’s annual economic growth rate in the absence of global warming. The estimates in this paper represent a wide range of results given by thousands of different routes.
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“For most countries, it’s almost certain that global warming has helped or hurt economic growth,” Burke said. Especially in tropical countries, temperature deviates significantly from ideals of economic growth. “There is basically no certainty that they are harmed.”
It is less clear how warming will affect growth in mid-latitude countries, including the United States, China and Japan. For these and other temperate climate countries, the analysis shows an economic impact of less than 10%.
“Some of the largest economies are close to optimal temperatures for economic output. Global warming hasn’t pushed them off the hill; in many cases, global warming has pushed them over the hill,” Burke said. It pushed us upwards. “But there will be significant warming in the future, pushing temperatures further and further away from the optimum.”
Countries with historically high emissions are among those with the highest GDP per capita and the highest economic growth since the 1960s, while countries with historically relatively low emissions have seen their GDP per capita decline.
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Although the effect of temperature may seem small from year to year, it can increase and decrease dramatically over time. “It’s like a savings account, where a small difference in interest rates can make a big difference in your account balance over 30 or 50 years,” says the Kara Jay Foundation of Stanford University’s School of Energy and Environmental Sciences. Professor Dieffenbach said. ). For example, after decades of cumulative warming effects, India’s economy is now 31 percent smaller than it would have been without global warming.
At a time when climate policy negotiations often stall over the question of how to equitably share responsibility for limiting future warming, Dieffenbaugh and Burke’s analysis offers new insight into the price many countries have already paid. “Our research shows how much economic benefit countries are experiencing from global warming relative to their historical contributions to greenhouse gases,” said Dieffenbaugh, who is also the Kimmelman Family Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “For the first time, we have clarified exactly how people are affected.”
Currently, the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions are on average about 10% higher than without global warming, while the lowest emissions have fallen by about 25%. “This is comparable to the decline in economic output seen in the United States during the Great Depression,” Burke said. “This is a huge loss compared to what these countries would have had otherwise.”
Researchers emphasize the importance of access to sustainable energy to increase economic development in poor countries. “The warmer these countries get, the more their development will be hindered,” Dieffenbaugh said. Historically, rapid economic development has been supported by fossil fuels. Our finding that global warming exacerbates economic inequality means that energy sources that do not contribute to more warming are profitable.
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Studies show that decades of warming have accelerated per capita economic growth in many colder countries, while slowing growth in warmer countries. In countries with temperate climates such as China, Japan, and the United States, climate change has little effect on economic growth.
The percentage on the right shows the average change in GDP per capita due to global warming from 1961 to 2010.
. Mr. Burke is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Speghley Institute for International Studies and, graciously, at the Woods Institute for the Environment.
This research was supported by the Center for Computational and Environmental Sciences, the Stanford Research Computing Center, and Stanford University.
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Stanford University and local experts discuss ways to reduce risks to communities and infrastructure during dramatic swings between floods and droughts. The map on the left shows countries whose GDP per capita increased or decreased as a result of global warming from 1961 to 2010. The right side shows the same data for 1991, after economic data became available for more countries. (Image credit: Noah Dieffenbaugh and Marshall Burke)
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According to a new Stanford University study, the gap in economic output between the world’s richest and poorest countries is now 25 percent greater than it would have been without global warming.
A new study from Stanford University shows that global warming has increased economic inequality since the 1960s. Temperature changes caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere enrich colder countries such as Norway and Sweden, while inhibiting economic growth in warmer countries such as India and Nigeria.
According to an analysis by Noah Dieffenbaugh and Marshall Burke, warming that has already occurred (1°C or 1.8°F worldwide above the pre-industrial average) will increase economic inequality worldwide. (Image credit: Noah Dieffenbaugh and Marshall Burke)
“Our results show that most of the poorest countries on Earth can live without global warming,” said climate scientist Noah Dieffenbaugh, lead author of the study, published in an April 22 paper. that they are much poorer than if they were.”
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The study, conducted by Marshall Burke, an assistant professor of earth system science at Stanford University, found that between 1961 and 2010, global warming reduced per capita wealth by 17 to 30 percent in the world’s poorest countries. Meanwhile, the gap between the groups of countries with the highest and lowest economic output per capita is now about 25 percent greater than it would have been without climate change.
Economic disparities between countries have narrowed in recent decades, but research shows they would be even faster without global warming.
This study is based on Burke and
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