Current State Of Us Economy – Data for March showed a slight cooling in the US economy, but no fundamental change in attitudes about the country’s short-term trajectory. The Astor® Economic Index remains in the same range from 2023, with levels consistent with below-average growth.
One of the great mysteries of the current macroeconomic cycle is the strong (perhaps too strong) labor market. Although monetary policy has been ineffective and its impact on job creation has been somewhat indirect, the Fed has cited a tight labor market as an indicator of further progress in combating inflation. Low unemployment is fueling competition for workers, pushing wages higher (up 0.2% per month in real terms) and pushing prices higher as companies try to maintain margins. Non-agricultural wages have averaged 351,000 million/m over the past 12 months, with March’s 236,000 million. lower in recent history but still showing strong employment and labor demand. The Fed is likely to cool things down a bit, but it may have lower wage growth and cooler wage growth in the coming months.
Current State Of Us Economy
On the cooling side, the ISM Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index continued its downward trend, falling further (below 50) to 46.3. The decline was driven by fewer new orders and lower prices, the latter suggesting that the supply chain for manufactured goods has recovered. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI fell from 55.2 to 51.2, still in positive territory but showing a significant drop in new orders. It is worth noting that other PMIs, such as the series published by S&P/IHS Markit, are less popular due to the differences in the world they study.
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With the predicted breakdown in the PMI, inflation this year will be largely driven by the services category rather than the demand for goods we saw during the pandemic. Headline CPI for March was printed at 5.0% y/y (0.1% m/m), while core was 5.6% y/y (0.38% m/m), broadly in line with estimates and slightly lower than previously. month. . Core prices were driven by shelter in place (up 0.25% m/m, many expected to cool in coming months) and transport, while headline inflation has been reduced by lower energy prices. There’s something to love about the doves and eagles in this inflatable print. On the one hand, the truncated average inflation (excluding large outliers) in two years is the same as the average CPI. On the other hand, the so-called supercore (excluding food, energy, used cars and housing) is still at 4%. That said, most inflation will depend on shelter prices, but pressures are still widespread.
Overall, the labor market and prices are likely to see another 25 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve at the May FOMC meeting. Additionally, it seems increasingly likely that the Fed will sit on the sidelines for some time to allow the effects of tightening to continue. Market participants are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will enter rate-cutting mode in the second half of the year. They may be surprised if inflation holds back or if the labor market shows resilience.
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Astor Economic Index®: The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents a collection of various economic data points. The Astor Economic Index® is designed to track various levels of growth in the US economy by analyzing current trends based on historical data. The Astor Economic Index® is not an investment product. The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor in your investment decisions. The index is based on retrospective data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee that the index will produce similar results in the future. All conclusions are Astor’s and are subject to change. Astor Economic Index® is a registered trademark of Astor Investment Management LLC.
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All information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to provide investment advice or services in any jurisdiction where doing so is illegal. Analysis and research is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading or investment purposes. All opinions expressed are valid as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not responsible for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of such information and are not responsible for trading or investing based on such information. See Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for further information on fees, risks and services. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell in 40 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2022, with a percentage change in real GDP: in Texas it was 1.8% and in Wyoming -4.8% (Table 1), according to statistics released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Current dollar GDP increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter, with percentage changes ranging from 30.5% in North Dakota to 0.7% in Connecticut.
Personal income increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter, with a percentage change of 10.9% in North Dakota to 2.2% in Connecticut (Table 3).
Today, for the first time, we publish monthly statistics on the country’s GDP and the country’s personal income together, giving a bigger picture of the country’s economy. We now produce one press release on the country’s GDP and personal income per quarter, concluding the publication of two separate press releases on different days.
Global Economic Growth Slows Amid Gloomy And More Uncertain Outlook
In the second quarter of 2022, real GDP fell in eight of the 23 industry groups that produced monthly national estimates, as the country’s real GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.6% (Table 2). erection; Manufacture of non-durable goods; And wholesale trade is the main reason for the decline in real GDP nationwide.
In the second quarter of 2022, national personal income grew at an annual rate of 5.8% for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. An increase in income and property income (dividends, interest, and rent) contributed to an increase in personal income in all states and the District of Columbia, while transfer income increased in 35 states (Table 4).
Revenue rose 6.3% nationally in the second quarter, with increases in every state and the District of Columbia (Table 4). Income changes range from 14.1% in North Dakota to 2.1% in Connecticut.
Turnover increased in 19 of the 24 industries that produced quarterly forecasts (Appendix 6). Professional, scientific and technical health services and social support; The field is a significant contributor to overall revenue growth.
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Property income rose in every state and the District of Columbia, an 8.7% increase nationwide. The rate of change ranged from 12.9% in Idaho to 4.8% in Kansas (Table 4).
Transfer revenue increased in 35 countries, up 1.5% nationally. The percentage change in transfer receipts ranged from 10.4% in New York to -4.1% in Massachusetts.
Estimates for the second quarter of 2022 incorporate the results of the annual update for the country’s GDP and the country’s personal income published today. Annual estimates of GDP and personal income by country from 2017 to 2021 and quarterly estimates of GDP and personal income by country from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2022 are revised. The update includes new source data and revisions that are more complete and detailed than previously, updates on seasonal factors and the results of the September 2022 National Income Accounts and National Product Annual Update and GDP by industry statistics. Our online journal
It also released new estimates of per capita personal income for the second quarter of 2022, along with revised estimates for the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2022 and annual estimates for 2017 to 2021. Calculate personal income per capita from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2022.
Personal Consumption Expenditures By State, 2021
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